Analysts say historic end to China’s one-child policy unlikely to boost economy

China abandoned its decades-old one-child policy Thursday to confront a looming slump in the economy’s workforce that it is probably powerless to prevent, analysts say.  All couples will now be allowed to have two children, but there are serious doubts that Chinese couples want more children. Even if they did, it would take at least 15 years before their offspring were old enough to have an impact on the greying workforce. The strict rules introduced in the 1970s have already been progressively relaxed, with Beijing announcing in 2013 that couples could have two children if either of them was an only child.

That did not lead them to deciding to have more, for reasons linked to changes in ways of life, urbanization, women working, and the fact that good schools are very expensive.

Patrick Artus, analyst at French investment bank Natixis

Growth in the world’s second largest economy is likely to slow to around seven percent this year, the lowest rate in a quarter century and a long way from the double-digit rates that it enjoyed just a few years ago. Chen Guangcheng, one of China’s best-known activists who fled to the U.S., accused the Communist Party of failing to address underlying issues such as labor shortages and social problems.

They’re just sort of relaxing the boundaries a little bit but they’re still maintaining strict control on something that should be everyone’s right. They need to eliminate it entirely.

Guangcheng

China one-child Asia-Pacific