Scottish, EU votes could signal Britain’s waning world influence

Britain faces two major referendums, one of which would physically shrink its population, reduce its landmass and put key defense capabilities at risk. The other would sever its historical ties to Europe. Scotland is holding a vote on Sept. 18 on whether it wants to stay part of the United Kingdom, to which it has belonged for 307 years. At the same time Prime Minister David Cameron is moving forward with a referendum on whether Britain wants to continue to be a member of the EU, the world’s largest market. Many argue that a vote to leave, in either case, could mean Britain’s influence in the world is irrevocably diminished, including its “special relationship” with the United States.

These are big, big relationships, and they have been fundamental in how the people of these isles have seen themselves.

Robert Colls, professor of cultural history at De Montfort University in Leicester

There is also a growing feeling in Britain that fewer foreign entanglements, whether military or economic, after centuries of “punching above its weight,” might be the right role for a midsize power in the 21st century. The ramifications would not be felt in Britain alone, however. A decision to leave the EU would reverberate throughout Europe and even across the Atlantic. No country in Europe wants to see Britain leave, especially powerhouses Germany and France, which have long turned to Britain for hard power and, depending on the issue at hand, to bolster their positions. Either way, Britain finds itself at a hinge moment, searching for its place in a postimperial, postindustrial, globalized age.

It could begin the complete breakup of Europe. It is a moment of disintegration.

Hans Kundnani, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London

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