With stalemate looming, Iran needs nuclear deal more than US

With the Iran nuclear talks almost certain to grind on past a Tuesday deadline, prospects for a stalemate that puts off further efforts to reach a deal on Iran’s nuclear program appear to be growing. If the two sides in the talks – six world powers and Iran – do walk away from the negotiating table, even if for just a matter of weeks, the pause will largely reflect the economic and political crosscurrents the Iranian leadership is navigating, some analysts say. Faced with a possibility of stiffer sanctions, and the Obama administration’s warning that it has the option of using military force to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, should diplomacy fail, Iran is trying to stand its ground while not further compromising its crippled economy and population.

If the negotiations fail to the point of an open break … the resulting failure will make all of the current tensions far worse. Any such end to the talks will again raise the issue of Israeli or US preventive strikes.

Anthony Cordesman, a national security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies

Resolving the outstanding areas of disagreement remains possible, if not by the Tuesday deadline then within the first few days of July, backers of a deal as laid out in the framework agreement say. Iranian leaders insisted over the weekend that their country is not desperate to reach an accord with the six world powers. But others say Iran’s economic straits and broad public support for a deal belie such bravado. Plus, failure to reach a deal is likely to soon enough return the US-Iran relationship to one of open confrontation. An Iran outside the limitations of ongoing negotiations might re-accelerate its nuclear program and advance its steps toward nuclear weapons capability.

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