Wondering how long you have? Simple score gives five-year death risk

Health researchers have developed a scientifically rigorous death risk calculator that predicts a person’s risk of dying within five years and say they hope people will use it to improve their health. Using a simple set of around a dozen questions about such things as the number of cars you own or whether you tend to be a slow or, better, a fast walker, the predictor can give a five-year death risk calculation for any Briton aged between 40 and 70 years old.

The score can be measured online in a brief questionnaire, without any need for lab tests or physical examination.

Andrea Ganna from Sweden’s Karolinska Institute, who co-led the work

The researchers who developed the calculator with Sense About Science, a UK charity that works to help people make sense of scientific and medical claims, say it could improve health awareness and also in future be used by family doctors to identify high-risk potential patients. As well as the five-year death risk, the calculator gives users a so-called “Ubble age”. Those whose “Ubble age” is significantly higher than their actual age should see this as a health warning, the researchers said, and think hard about changing their lifestyle.

Science predict die