World population may hit 11 billion by 2100

The world population may reach 11 billion by century’s end, according to a UN-led analysis published Thursday. That would mean two billion more people on Earth than expected by 2100, largely due to high birth rates in Africa, said the report in the US journal Science. The bulk of the growth was anticipated in Africa, where the population is expected to rise from one billion today to four billion by the end of the century.

Earlier projections were strictly based on scenarios, so there was no uncertainty. This work provides a more statistically driven assessment that allows us to quantify the predictions, and offer a confidence interval that could be useful in planning.

UN demographer Patrick Gerland

More people on Earth will likely exacerbate problems such as climate change, infectious diseases and poverty. Co-author of the study Adrian Raftery, a professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington, warned: “Population, which had sort of fallen off the world’s agenda, remains a very important issue.” Two methods that have been shown to decrease population are wider access to birth control and the education of girls and women.

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